← All models
Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
28–9 on winners
spread MAE 10.1
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Indiana
@
Michigan
|
+18.4 | 161.7 | 95% | 72–86 | ✓ |
UCF
@
Iowa State
|
+12.9 | 159.1 | 88% | 57–87 | ✓ |
LSU
@
Florida
|
+10.5 | 158.5 | 83% | 61–79 | ✓ |
NC State
@
Clemson
|
+2.8 | 147.5 | 60% | 80–76 | ✗ |
Saint Louis
@
Duquesne
|
-13.7 | 173.8 | 11% | 81–77 | ✓ |
Miami (OH)
@
Kent State
|
-4.1 | 179.7 | 35% | 107–101 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
St. Bonaventure
|
+14.1 | 152.2 | 90% | 70–84 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
St. John's
|
+9.6 | 141.1 | 81% | 60–65 | ✓ |
Florida State
@
Miami
|
+15.6 | 166.1 | 92% | 65–63 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Ohio
|
+10.8 | 152.3 | 84% | 77–80 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Western Michigan
|
-6.4 | 155.4 | 28% | 72–54 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Central Michigan
|
+1.1 | 136.0 | 54% | 68–67 | ✗ |
Oklahoma
@
South Carolina
|
+1.1 | 151.3 | 54% | 76–85 | ✓ |
DePaul
@
Butler
|
+10.4 | 149.5 | 83% | 80–87 | ✓ |
Evansville
@
UIC
|
+10.0 | 139.6 | 82% | 49–76 | ✓ |
Oklahoma State
@
TCU
|
+7.6 | 162.0 | 75% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Iowa
|
+21.2 | 139.6 | 97% | 62–68 | ✓ |
Boise State
@
Wyoming
|
+3.2 | 148.3 | 61% | 81–65 | ✗ |
UT Martin
@
Southeast Missouri State
|
-1.3 | 141.8 | 45% | 50–66 | ✗ |
Michigan State
@
Oregon
|
-10.6 | 138.4 | 17% | 68–52 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Baylor
|
-1.7 | 160.1 | 44% | 92–73 | ✓ |
Georgia
@
Missouri
|
-5.4 | 172.1 | 31% | 74–72 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Kansas State
|
+8.7 | 171.6 | 79% | 78–81 | ✓ |
SMU
@
Wake Forest
|
-1.2 | 160.5 | 46% | 91–79 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Colorado State
|
+19.5 | 134.0 | 96% | 52–81 | ✓ |
Auburn
@
Ole Miss
|
-2.1 | 153.6 | 42% | 78–66 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Arkansas
|
+0.1 | 177.4 | 50% | 68–93 | ✓ |
Purdue
@
UCLA
|
-7.1 | 144.9 | 26% | 67–69 | ✗ |
San José State
@
Nevada
|
+15.1 | 145.7 | 91% | 54–87 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Utah State
|
+19.9 | 162.7 | 96% | 86–76 | ✗ |
Kansas
@
Colorado
|
-8.4 | 157.0 | 22% | 75–69 | ✓ |
Lafayette
@
Boston University
|
+5.8 | 152.1 | 70% | 73–77 | ✓ |
UNC Asheville
@
South Carolina Upstate
|
+1.0 | 141.2 | 54% | 83–69 | ✗ |
Samford
@
Wofford
|
+4.9 | 155.1 | 67% | 78–88 | ✓ |
UNC Greensboro
@
VMI
|
-2.4 | 154.3 | 41% | 85–78 | ✓ |
Dayton
@
La Salle
|
-8.7 | 137.0 | 21% | 64–67 | ✗ |
Radford
@
Winthrop
|
+13.9 | 167.5 | 90% | 75–76 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.