Betting Lines
| Spread | WAKE -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | WAKE -112 SMU -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WAKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SMU +12 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -1.9 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -0.2 (-11.8) | 152.9 (+17.1) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -0.6 (-11.4) | 148.4 (+21.6) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -0.9 (-11.1) | 149.8 (+20.2) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -1.1 (-10.9) | 152.9 (+17.1) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2025 | WAKE 77 – 66 SMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WAKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 20-14 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 13-7 | 15-3 |
| Away | 2-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.8 | 84.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.9 | 77.9 |
| Massey | 10.5 (#59) | 15.7 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.56 (#67) | 2.64 (#29) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.92 (#74) | 3.36 (#30) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#67) | 0.634 (#21) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WAKE | SMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.4 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.2% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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