You just want to be on the side that's winning. "Positively 4th Street" - Bob Dylan
Atlantic Coast Conference · LJVM Coliseum · January 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread WAKE -1.5 Away covered
O/U 157.5 Over
Money WAKE -112 / SMU -108
Model Predictions
Spread Total WAKE win
Actual SMU +12 170 Lost
Massey SMU -1.9 (-10.1)
Massey Totals 160.4 (+9.6)
Bradley-Terry 38%
Weighted B-T 31%
Efficiency Plus ML SMU -0.2 (-11.8) 152.9 (+17.1) 55%
Baseline Tuned ML SMU -0.6 (-11.4) 148.4 (+21.6) 47%
Baseline ML SMU -0.9 (-11.1) 149.8 (+20.2) 50%
Baseline Plus ML SMU -1.1 (-10.9) 152.9 (+17.1) 51%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 15, 2025 WAKE 7766 SMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings WAKE SMU
Overall 18-17 20-14
Conference 7-11 8-10
Home 13-7 15-3
Away 2-7 3-8
Neutral 3-3 2-3
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 78.8 84.1
Avg Pts Against 76.9 77.9
Massey 10.5 (#59) 15.7 (#29)
Bradley-Terry 1.56 (#67) 2.64 (#29)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.92 (#74) 3.36 (#30)
RPI 0.570 (#67) 0.634 (#21)
Shooting & Four Factors WAKE SMU
FG% 45.2% 49.7%
3PT% 33.4% 35.8%
REB / G 34.2 38.3
OREB / G 11.4 12.4
AST / TO 1.24 1.50
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.5% 55.6%
TOV% 16.4% 16.1%
ORB% 32.2% 35.7%
FT Rate 25.2% 27.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.6% 49.9%
Opp TOV% 21.5% 18.6%
DRB% 66.8% 68.0%
Opp FT Rate 28.4% 24.1%

Game Analysis

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