Betting Lines
| Spread | SMU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | SMU -275 WAKE +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WAKE +11 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | SMU -9.2 (-20.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SMU -7.6 (-18.6) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 75% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SMU -8.1 (-19.1) | 142.4 (+0.6) | 77% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SMU -7.5 (-18.5) | 142.8 (+0.2) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SMU -8.2 (-19.2) | 144.8 (-1.8) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | SMU 91 – 79 WAKE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SMU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-11 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-6 | 13-3 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 13.7 (#36) | 7.6 (#78) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.15 (#46) | 2.39 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#47) | 2.78 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#49) | 0.578 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SMU | WAKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.3% | 29.2% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 8.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.2% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 26.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.6% | 46.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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