That's where you'll find me, along with the lovers muggers and thieves - but they're cool people. "Dirty Water" - The Standells
Oregon Ducks
52 68
FINAL Conference
Michigan State Spartans
Big Ten Conference · Matthew Knight Arena · January 21, 2026
Betting Lines
Spread MSU -10.5 Away covered
O/U 139.5 Under
Money ORE +455 / MSU -625
Model Predictions
Spread Total ORE win
Actual MSU +16 120 Lost
Massey MSU -10.3 (-5.7)
Massey Totals 139.2 (-19.2)
Bradley-Terry 6%
Weighted B-T 2%
Efficiency Plus ML MSU -7.5 (-8.5) 135.2 (-15.2) 21%
Baseline Tuned ML MSU -8.4 (-7.6) 133.3 (-13.3) 18%
Baseline ML MSU -8.1 (-7.9) 135.4 (-15.4) 20%
Baseline Plus ML MSU -9.0 (-7.0) 135.2 (-15.2) 17%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Mar 14, 2025 MSU 7464 ORE
Feb 8, 2025 MSU 8674 ORE
Nov 26, 2022 MSU 7470 ORE

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings ORE MSU
Overall 12-20 27-8
Conference 5-15 15-5
Home 10-7 15-2
Away 2-8 6-4
Neutral 0-5 6-2
Last 5 1-4 4-1
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 70.8 78.8
Avg Pts Against 73.9 68.3
Massey 6.7 (#93) 20.3 (#12)
Bradley-Terry 0.72 (#106) 4.09 (#9)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.12 (#99) 5.58 (#6)
RPI 0.538 (#100) 0.666 (#9)
Shooting & Four Factors ORE MSU
FG% 43.2% 46.8%
3PT% 33.5% 35.3%
REB / G 37.6 42.2
OREB / G 13.5 13.6
AST / TO 1.17 1.52
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 50.5% 53.1%
TOV% 18.5% 18.0%
ORB% 37.1% 39.8%
FT Rate 25.9% 27.3%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 50.2% 46.0%
Opp TOV% 16.2% 16.8%
DRB% 68.6% 78.5%
Opp FT Rate 26.2% 21.5%

Game Analysis

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