Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | ORE +455 MSU -625 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ORE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +16 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MSU -10.3 (-5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-19.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 6% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -9.0 (-7.0) | 135.2 (-15.2) | 17% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -7.5 (-8.5) | 135.2 (-15.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -8.4 (-7.6) | 133.3 (-13.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -8.1 (-7.9) | 135.4 (-15.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSU 74 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MSU 86 – 74 ORE |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MSU 74 – 70 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ORE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-7 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 78.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#93) | 20.3 (#12) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#106) | 4.09 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#99) | 5.58 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#100) | 0.666 (#9) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ORE | MSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 42.2 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 13.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.52 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 37.1% | 39.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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