Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -163 ORE +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +4 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.7 (-0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -2.1 (+1.9) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -2.8 (+1.2) | 134.8 (+9.2) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -2.8 (+1.2) | 136.4 (+7.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -2.4 (+1.6) | 137.0 (+7.0) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | MSU 68 – 52 ORE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSU 74 – 64 ORE |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MSU 86 – 74 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 21-15 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 15-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.3 |
| Massey | 8.4 (#53) | 3.8 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.96 (#107) | -0.59 (#228) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#78) | 0.15 (#172) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#83) | 0.475 (#207) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 27.3% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 30.9% | 35.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 12.0% |
Game Analysis
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