Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MSU -450 ORE +340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +12 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -7.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.2 (+11.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -8.2 (+3.8) | 147.5 (+12.5) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -6.7 (+5.3) | 144.6 (+15.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -6.9 (+5.1) | 145.0 (+15.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -6.9 (+5.1) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | MSU 68 – 52 ORE |
| Mar 14, 2025 | MSU 74 – 64 ORE |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MSU 74 – 70 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#18) | 13.1 (#40) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#14) | 2.74 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.93 (#15) | 3.25 (#33) |
| RPI | 0.626 (#19) | 0.622 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.8% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 33.1% |
| REB / G | 40.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 37.0% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.3% | 26.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.5% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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