Betting Lines
| Spread | MSU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Under |
| Money | MSU -270 ORE +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MSU +10 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | MSU -4.8 (+5.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.6 (-4.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSU -4.8 (+5.2) | 140.6 (-2.6) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSU -5.4 (+4.6) | 139.2 (-1.2) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MSU -5.4 (+4.6) | 137.2 (+0.8) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSU -4.3 (+5.7) | 139.9 (-1.9) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | MSU 68 – 52 ORE |
| Feb 8, 2025 | MSU 86 – 74 ORE |
| Nov 26, 2022 | MSU 74 – 70 ORE |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-7 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-2 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 7-4 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.7 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 19.2 (#13) | 14.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.54 (#7) | 3.01 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.49 (#8) | 3.54 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.637 (#8) | 0.626 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSU | ORE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.2% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 40.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 1.32 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 52.3% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 16.2% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
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