Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | UCLA +210 PUR -258 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +2 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -7.4 (+9.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.3 (-9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -1.9 (+3.9) | 138.6 (-2.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -5.2 (+7.2) | 140.6 (-4.6) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.9 (+6.9) | 141.3 (-5.3) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -5.5 (+7.5) | 139.3 (-3.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PUR 73 – 66 UCLA |
| Mar 1, 2025 | PUR 76 – 66 UCLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCLA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 30-9 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-5 |
| Away | 4-6 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 3-5 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 81.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.1 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 11.8 (#47) | 22.5 (#5) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#52) | 4.65 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.34 (#58) | 5.57 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#74) | 0.686 (#2) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCLA | PUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 51.3% |
| 3PT% | 36.8% | 39.2% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 2.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 58.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 14.3% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 37.0% |
| FT Rate | 28.2% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.3% | 15.4% |
Game Analysis
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