Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | PUR -250 UCLA +210 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +10 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -4.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.9 (+5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -4.8 (+5.2) | 139.6 (+2.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -5.0 (+5.0) | 137.6 (+4.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -4.9 (+5.1) | 138.3 (+3.7) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -4.5 (+5.5) | 139.4 (+2.6) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | PUR 73 – 66 UCLA |
| Jan 21, 2026 | UCLA 69 – 67 PUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 23-11 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 13-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.2 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 17.5 (#19) | 16.3 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.83 (#22) | 2.59 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.66 (#17) | 3.22 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#10) | 0.589 (#38) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 30.4% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 23.4% |
| DRB% | 70.8% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.8% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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