Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | ISU -1350 UCF +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +30 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -13.2 (+16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.6 (-15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -11.6 (+18.4) | 149.7 (-5.7) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -11.1 (+18.9) | 152.2 (-8.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -11.6 (+18.4) | 151.5 (-7.5) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -13.3 (+16.7) | 150.0 (-6.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | ISU 77 – 65 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ISU 108 – 83 UCF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ISU 60 – 52 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-1 | 14-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 82.0 | 80.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.6 | 78.4 |
| Massey | 22.5 (#6) | 12.6 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.75 (#12) | 3.11 (#20) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.76 (#12) | 3.76 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.636 (#19) | 0.635 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.6% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 40.4% | 37.4% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 39.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.4 | 13.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.69 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.9% | 54.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 26.9% |
Game Analysis
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