Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | ISU -2000 UCF +1000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ISU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +25 | 191 | Won |
| Massey | ISU -18.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+32.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -15.0 (+10.0) | 158.5 (+32.5) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -15.3 (+9.7) | 157.2 (+33.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -15.2 (+9.8) | 155.6 (+35.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -16.3 (+8.7) | 158.0 (+33.0) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | ISU 87 – 57 UCF |
| Feb 12, 2025 | ISU 77 – 65 UCF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ISU 60 – 52 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ISU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 20-17 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-5 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.3 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 80.4 |
| Massey | 21.1 (#7) | 6.6 (#84) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.94 (#5) | 2.23 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.99 (#7) | 2.81 (#41) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#15) | 0.607 (#30) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ISU | UCF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.3% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 12.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.55 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 34.0% | 33.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 28.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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