Betting Lines
| Spread | ISU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UCF +270 ISU -340 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ISU +12 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | ISU -9.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.7 (-19.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 31% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ISU -6.4 (-5.6) | 154.8 (-12.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ISU -5.4 (-6.6) | 154.8 (-12.8) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ISU -6.1 (-5.9) | 154.1 (-12.1) | 24% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ISU -7.9 (-4.1) | 155.8 (-13.8) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | ISU 87 – 57 UCF |
| Jan 22, 2025 | ISU 108 – 83 UCF |
| Mar 2, 2024 | ISU 60 – 52 UCF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-17 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 13-7 |
| Home | 13-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 2-8 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 80.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.4 | 68.3 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#79) | 19.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#59) | 2.98 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.94 (#64) | 3.51 (#27) |
| RPI | 0.567 (#63) | 0.608 (#28) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | ISU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.0% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 22.1% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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