Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +425 DAY -575 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +3 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -8.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -8.2 (+11.2) | 136.0 (-5.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -7.9 (+10.9) | 136.2 (-5.2) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -8.0 (+11.0) | 134.0 (-3.0) | 22% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -7.2 (+10.2) | 136.1 (-5.1) | 24% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 31, 2024 | DAY 84 – 70 LAS |
| Jan 23, 2024 | DAY 66 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DAY 77 – 53 LAS |
| Feb 26, 2022 | LAS 62 – 60 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2020 | LAS 67 – 65 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 25-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 14-4 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.9 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.0 | 69.3 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#228) | 7.7 (#85) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.66 (#230) | 1.55 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#217) | 1.94 (#73) |
| RPI | 0.493 (#190) | 0.569 (#69) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.06 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 36.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 23.8% |
| DRB% | 67.6% | 68.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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