Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1000 LAS +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +2 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -8.5 (-10.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.4 (+5.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -4.8 (-6.8) | 134.0 (-2.0) | 59% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -4.9 (-6.9) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -5.6 (-7.6) | 133.8 (-1.8) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -5.5 (-7.5) | 133.8 (-1.8) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | LAS 67 – 64 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DAY 84 – 70 LAS |
| Jan 23, 2024 | DAY 66 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DAY 77 – 53 LAS |
| Feb 26, 2022 | LAS 62 – 60 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-10 | 9-16 |
| Conference | 9-7 | 6-11 |
| Home | 8-3 | 6-3 |
| Away | 4-6 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#115) | -1.4 (#188) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#44) | -0.55 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.02 (#50) | -0.24 (#177) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#24) | 0.485 (#178) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.0% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.5% | 38.1% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 6.4 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 26.1% | 22.6% |
| ORB% | 25.0% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.2% | 14.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.8% | 48.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 64.1% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.2% | 23.0% |
Game Analysis
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