Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | LAS +310 DAY -450 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +12 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | DAY -12.4 (+0.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-26.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -11.5 (-0.5) | 140.1 (-20.1) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -11.2 (-0.8) | 140.6 (-20.6) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -11.5 (-0.5) | 140.9 (-20.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.5 (-0.5) | 138.9 (-18.9) | 15% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | LAS 67 – 64 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DAY 84 – 70 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DAY 77 – 53 LAS |
| Feb 26, 2022 | LAS 62 – 60 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2020 | LAS 67 – 65 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-6 | 15-0 |
| Away | 3-10 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 74.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 66.5 |
| Massey | -3.2 (#223) | 13.0 (#31) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.12 (#184) | 3.08 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.25 (#197) | 3.83 (#6) |
| RPI | 0.480 (#209) | 0.664 (#3) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 40.8% |
| REB / G | 33.8 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 57.3% |
| TOV% | 14.1% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.9% |
| FT Rate | 19.9% | 28.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 46.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 67.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.9% | 14.3% |
Game Analysis
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