Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | DAY -1400 LAS +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -14.7 (+9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -14.1 (+9.9) | 135.6 (-5.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -12.2 (+11.8) | 135.9 (-5.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -12.8 (+11.2) | 136.1 (-6.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -12.6 (+11.4) | 136.5 (-6.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | LAS 67 – 64 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DAY 84 – 70 LAS |
| Jan 23, 2024 | DAY 66 – 54 LAS |
| Feb 26, 2022 | LAS 62 – 60 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2020 | LAS 67 – 65 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 14-2 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#77) | -3.4 (#225) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#93) | -0.33 (#208) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#84) | -0.63 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.549 (#87) | 0.491 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 36.3 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.2% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 69.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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