Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.0 Under |
| Money | LAS +400 DAY -550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LAS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAS +2 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -11.5 (+13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -11.3 (+13.3) | 130.7 (-8.7) | 19% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -10.8 (+12.8) | 130.6 (-8.6) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -10.9 (+12.9) | 135.6 (-13.6) | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -12.7 (+14.7) | 135.9 (-13.9) | 18% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | LAS 67 – 64 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2024 | DAY 84 – 70 LAS |
| Jan 23, 2024 | DAY 66 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DAY 77 – 53 LAS |
| Dec 31, 2020 | LAS 67 – 65 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 24-11 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-10 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 61.2 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#242) | 10.0 (#49) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#275) | 1.47 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#275) | 1.92 (#63) |
| RPI | 0.434 (#301) | 0.566 (#62) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LAS | DAY |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 47.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.4% | 76.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 16.7% |
Game Analysis
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