Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -4000 LAS +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +14 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -15.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.1 (+4.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -14.7 (-0.7) | 143.4 (+10.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.9 (+0.1) | 144.7 (+9.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -12.8 (+1.2) | 144.8 (+9.2) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -13.2 (+0.8) | 144.3 (+9.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2026 | LAS 67 – 64 DAY |
| Jan 23, 2024 | DAY 66 – 54 LAS |
| Mar 1, 2023 | DAY 77 – 53 LAS |
| Feb 26, 2022 | LAS 62 – 60 DAY |
| Dec 31, 2020 | LAS 67 – 65 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 5-13 |
| Home | 16-2 | 10-5 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.4 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 75.5 |
| Massey | 11.1 (#49) | -0.5 (#163) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#33) | 0.41 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.02 (#18) | 0.17 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.598 (#41) | 0.516 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.79 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.8% | 47.5% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 15.6% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.0% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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