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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
12–2 on winners
spread MAE 7.4
14 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
New Haven
@
Chicago State
|
+1.9 | 132.7 | 57% | 62–56 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Lehigh
|
+6.6 | 153.7 | 73% | 81–88 | ✓ |
SE Louisiana
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+8.5 | 136.0 | 78% | 65–68 | ✓ |
Stephen F. Austin
@
Nicholls
|
-6.0 | 146.8 | 29% | 79–62 | ✓ |
Florida A&M
@
Mississippi Valley State
|
-11.8 | 144.4 | 14% | 62–48 | ✓ |
Texas Southern
@
Jackson State
|
+0.8 | 156.9 | 53% | 89–94 | ✓ |
Northwestern State
@
Houston Christian
|
+3.4 | 145.3 | 62% | 80–82 | ✓ |
Lamar
@
New Orleans
|
+1.2 | 149.4 | 54% | 76–89 | ✓ |
Montana State
@
Northern Colorado
|
+1.6 | 155.4 | 56% | 73–68 | ✗ |
Montana
@
Northern Arizona
|
-4.4 | 143.4 | 34% | 98–72 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
Hampton
|
+4.1 | 144.4 | 64% | 61–82 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Massachusetts
|
+2.0 | 162.4 | 57% | 82–84 | ✓ |
Minnesota
@
Ohio State
|
+9.8 | 145.5 | 81% | 74–82 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Buffalo
|
-6.3 | 176.7 | 28% | 82–63 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.