Betting Lines
| Spread | MASS -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 164.5 Over |
| Money | MASS -135 TOL +114 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MASS win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MASS +2 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | MASS -2.2 (-0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 163.1 (+2.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MASS -1.6 (+0.4) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 64% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MASS -1.0 (+1.0) | 152.7 (+13.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MASS -0.5 (+1.5) | 154.0 (+12.0) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MASS -0.7 (+1.3) | 155.2 (+10.8) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2026 | TOL 77 – 67 MASS |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MASS | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-5 | 11-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.9 | 79.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.8 | 77.4 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#180) | 0.4 (#159) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#198) | 0.32 (#137) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.24 (#189) | 0.53 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#220) | 0.538 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MASS | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.0% | 46.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.3% | 52.1% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 15.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 56.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 65.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.6% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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