Oh workers can you stand it, oh tell me how you can? Will you be a lousy scab or will you be a man? "Which Side Are You On?" - Pete Seeger
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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16–13 on winners spread MAE 10.3 29 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Washington State @ San Francisco +5.5 144.7 69% 80–85 ✓
Northeastern @ Monmouth +3.1 149.9 61% 68–81 ✓
Stonehill @ Saint Francis -1.9 142.9 43% 61–63 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -3.4 148.5 38% 68–75 ✗
Drexel @ Towson +4.9 121.6 67% 58–59 ✓
Iona @ Saint Peter's +1.6 146.8 56% 63–77 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Rider -3.4 142.1 38% 105–85 ✓
Cornell @ Brown +0.2 169.4 51% 89–67 ✗
Columbia @ Yale +9.8 157.0 81% 74–91 ✓
Fairfield @ Siena +7.2 144.1 74% 77–85 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Niagara -3.4 135.8 38% 68–58 ✓
Merrimack @ Marist +11.2 125.8 85% 68–55 ✗
Manhattan @ Quinnipiac +16.3 158.9 93% 92–98 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Mercyhurst -1.3 134.5 45% 61–79 ✗
Pennsylvania @ Harvard +4.5 148.4 66% 63–64 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.3 150.1 45% 61–68 ✗
New Hampshire @ Maine +1.1 124.9 54% 65–48 ✗
UMBC @ Binghamton -7.4 145.0 25% 78–60 ✓
Bryant @ NJIT +1.6 132.8 56% 55–79 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +18.0 153.5 95% 72–79 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Alcorn State -5.1 160.4 32% 75–76 ✗
Long Island University @ Le Moyne -0.5 152.4 48% 77–83 ✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi -5.4 138.7 31% 69–53 ✓
George Washington @ George Mason +1.6 155.5 56% 64–69 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Alabama State +0.1 146.8 50% 73–69 ✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth +5.0 146.0 68% 69–71 ✓
Providence @ Marquette -3.0 177.0 39% 104–105 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Incarnate Word +10.5 143.5 83% 80–58 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff +1.8 160.5 56% 87–82 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.