Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | UAPB +120 BCU -142 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +5 | 169 | Lost |
| Massey | UAPB -1.2 (-6.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -0.5 (-5.5) | 153.3 (+15.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UAPB -0.4 (-5.4) | 151.6 (+17.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | UAPB -0.5 (-5.5) | 149.6 (+19.4) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -0.4 (-5.4) | 152.2 (+16.8) | 51% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 21, 2025 | BCU 73 – 64 UAPB |
| Jan 23, 2024 | UAPB 76 – 72 BCU |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UAPB 77 – 71 BCU |
| Jan 18, 2022 | UAPB 69 – 63 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 14-4 |
| Home | 7-4 | 10-1 |
| Away | 6-14 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.9 | 77.5 |
| Massey | -11.5 (#327) | -9.3 (#302) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#262) | -0.95 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#281) | -1.47 (#266) |
| RPI | 0.469 (#232) | 0.481 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.8% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.9% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 65.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 35.0% | 30.1% |
Game Analysis
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