Betting Lines
| Spread | UAPB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Under |
| Money | UAPB -125 BCU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAPB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAPB +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | UAPB -0.5 (+3.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 172.3 (-24.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAPB -0.8 (+3.2) | 156.8 (-8.8) | 55% ✓ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | UAPB -1.4 (+2.6) | 157.7 (-9.7) | 61% ✓ |
| Model 3 ML | BCU -0.4 (+4.4) | 158.6 (-10.6) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAPB -0.0 (+4.0) | 161.2 (-13.2) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 19, 2026 | BCU 87 – 82 UAPB |
| Jan 21, 2025 | BCU 73 – 64 UAPB |
| Jan 17, 2023 | UAPB 77 – 71 BCU |
| Jan 18, 2022 | UAPB 69 – 63 BCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAPB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 8-6 | 11-2 |
| Away | 5-12 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.7 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.7 | 73.7 |
| Massey | -13.9 (#345) | -10.7 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.06 (#332) | -1.40 (#300) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.19 (#346) | -1.88 (#307) |
| RPI | 0.416 (#312) | 0.414 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAPB | BCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 28.2% |
| REB / G | 29.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 46.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 21.6% | 31.8% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.0% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 22.3% |
| DRB% | 62.0% | 66.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 37.4% |
Game Analysis
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