Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA -102 LAM -118 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NOLA +13 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | NOLA -1.2 (+11.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.4 (+15.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NOLA -0.0 (+13.0) | 142.0 (+23.0) | 51% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -0.5 (+13.5) | 141.6 (+23.4) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NOLA -1.3 (+11.7) | 140.1 (+24.9) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NOLA -0.6 (+12.4) | 140.6 (+24.4) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 71 LAM |
| Jan 14, 2025 | NOLA 68 – 62 LAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | LAM 71 – 57 NOLA |
| Feb 17, 2024 | LAM 94 – 72 NOLA |
| Jan 30, 2024 | LAM 98 – 73 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-18 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 12-10 | 7-15 |
| Home | 5-6 | 7-8 |
| Away | 9-11 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.7 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -4.0 (#227) | -1.9 (#193) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#235) | -0.61 (#224) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#230) | -0.70 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.471 (#229) | 0.450 (#264) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 42.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 35.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 35.3% | 34.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.6% | 21.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 64.3% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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