Betting Lines
| Spread | LAM -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Over |
| Money | NOLA +225 LAM -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NOLA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LAM +22 | 166 | Lost |
| Massey | LAM -7.0 (-15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAM -7.0 (-15.0) | 157.1 (+8.9) | 27% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAM -5.4 (-16.6) | 156.8 (+9.2) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAM -6.6 (-15.4) | 155.2 (+10.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LAM -6.5 (-15.5) | 155.6 (+10.4) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | NOLA 77 – 71 LAM |
| Jan 20, 2026 | NOLA 89 – 76 LAM |
| Jan 14, 2025 | NOLA 68 – 62 LAM |
| Mar 11, 2024 | LAM 71 – 57 NOLA |
| Jan 30, 2024 | LAM 98 – 73 NOLA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NOLA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 12-6 |
| Home | 7-6 | 11-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 3-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 76.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | -13.5 (#344) | -3.1 (#221) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.53 (#351) | -0.99 (#275) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#349) | -1.02 (#256) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#346) | 0.448 (#276) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NOLA | LAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 44.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 36.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.0% | 29.3% |
Game Analysis
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