Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | APP -520 UL +390 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | APP -11.1 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.0 (+10.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -9.1 (+4.9) | 132.1 (-2.1) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -8.1 (+5.9) | 128.0 (+2.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -8.5 (+5.5) | 127.8 (+2.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -8.7 (+5.3) | 129.7 (+0.3) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 19, 2024 | UL 68 – 62 APP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | APP 85 – 73 UL |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UL 71 – 55 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 11-22 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 11-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-7 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 63.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#226) | -11.5 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.54 (#219) | -1.99 (#330) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.87 (#228) | -2.69 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.477 (#217) | 0.426 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 46.8% |
| TOV% | 15.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 30.5% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.4% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.6% | 33.3% |
Game Analysis
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