And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
Sun Belt Conference · Holmes Convocation Center · December 30, 2021
Betting Lines
Spread APP -3.0 Away covered
O/U 135.5 Under
Model Predictions
Spread Total APP win
Actual UL +16 126 Lost
Massey APP -4.1 (-20.1)
Massey Totals 128.0 (-2.0)
Bradley-Terry 78%
Weighted B-T 85%
Efficiency Plus ML APP -2.6 (-18.6) 133.5 (-7.5) 65%
Baseline Tuned ML APP -3.1 (-19.1) 134.3 (-8.3) 64%
Baseline ML APP -2.5 (-18.5) 134.9 (-8.9) 62%
Baseline Plus ML APP -3.9 (-19.9) 134.9 (-8.9) 69%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 22, 2026 APP 7258 UL
Dec 19, 2024 UL 6862 APP
Feb 17, 2024 APP 8573 UL

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings APP UL
Overall 19-15 16-15
Conference 12-6 8-9
Home 11-5 7-6
Away 6-7 6-8
Neutral 2-3 3-1
Last 5 1-4 2-3
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 65.3 70.3
Avg Pts Against 65.3 70.1
Massey -0.8 (#192) -0.5 (#182)
Bradley-Terry -0.22 (#202) -0.71 (#239)
W. Bradley-Terry 0.12 (#161) -0.73 (#233)
RPI 0.505 (#164) 0.450 (#261)
Shooting & Four Factors APP UL
FG% 40.3% 38.3%
3PT% 29.0% 33.0%
REB / G 31.8 40.8
OREB / G 8.9 13.8
AST / TO 0.97 0.64
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 46.7% 44.6%
TOV% 16.0% 23.7%
ORB% 25.6% 34.1%
FT Rate 16.1% 21.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.3% 47.1%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 20.5%
DRB% 76.3% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 16.8% 24.9%

Game Analysis

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