Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -3.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +16 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | APP -4.1 (-20.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.0 (-2.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -2.6 (-18.6) | 133.5 (-7.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -3.1 (-19.1) | 134.3 (-8.3) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -2.5 (-18.5) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 62% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -3.9 (-19.9) | 134.9 (-8.9) | 69% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APP 72 – 58 UL |
| Dec 19, 2024 | UL 68 – 62 APP |
| Feb 17, 2024 | APP 85 – 73 UL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 16-15 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-9 |
| Home | 11-5 | 7-6 |
| Away | 6-7 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 70.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -0.8 (#192) | -0.5 (#182) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#202) | -0.71 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#161) | -0.73 (#233) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#164) | 0.450 (#261) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 13.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 0.64 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 34.1% |
| FT Rate | 16.1% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.3% | 47.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 76.3% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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