Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | APP -300 UL +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | APP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | APP +12 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | APP -6.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (+16.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -4.2 (+7.8) | 146.6 (+11.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -6.6 (+5.4) | 142.4 (+15.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | APP -6.0 (+6.0) | 143.5 (+14.5) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -5.9 (+6.1) | 145.7 (+12.3) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APP 72 – 58 UL |
| Dec 19, 2024 | UL 68 – 62 APP |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UL 71 – 55 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-7 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-0 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 6.4 (#89) | 3.3 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#65) | 0.52 (#130) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.54 (#85) | 0.67 (#130) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#47) | 0.544 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | APP | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.31 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 21.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.5% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 72.6% | 67.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.