Betting Lines
| Spread | APP -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | UL +125 APP -145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +6 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | APP -4.9 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | APP -5.2 (+11.2) | 130.9 (-0.9) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | APP -4.0 (+10.0) | 132.8 (-2.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | APP -4.4 (+10.4) | 134.0 (-4.0) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | APP -2.9 (+8.9) | 131.4 (-1.4) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | APP 72 – 58 UL |
| Feb 17, 2024 | APP 85 – 73 UL |
| Dec 30, 2021 | UL 71 – 55 APP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | APP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 17-14 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 5-12 | 10-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.9 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 64.6 |
| Massey | -12.9 (#348) | -3.8 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.69 (#343) | -0.01 (#175) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.20 (#339) | -0.31 (#192) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#305) | 0.499 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | APP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 28.5 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.1% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 46.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 61.6% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.1% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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