Well you know that it's a shame and a pity you were raised up in the city / And you never learned nothing about country ways "Not So Sweet Martha Lorraine" - Country Joe and the Fish
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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85–35 on winners spread MAE 8.7 120 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Illinois @ Maryland -9.7 144.7 19% 65–81 ✗
Evansville @ Illinois State +11.3 145.1 85% 56–94 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Saint Francis +7.0 140.7 74% 67–68 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Mount St. Mary's +2.6 138.3 59% 59–98 ✓
Bryant @ Merrimack -1.2 130.9 46% 79–63 ✓
Wagner @ Long Island University -7.4 144.6 25% 92–85 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.2 137.3 51% 80–78 ✗
Youngstown State @ Cleveland State +6.7 147.0 73% 61–64 ✓
Robert Morris @ Purdue Fort Wayne +7.1 143.4 74% 62–86 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Duquesne -3.8 139.2 37% 64–56 ✓
Rider @ Canisius +5.0 137.2 68% 69–70 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Niagara +6.2 120.9 71% 74–68 ✗
Siena @ Manhattan +5.9 140.9 70% 68–75 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo +8.0 141.7 77% 51–64 ✓
Michigan State @ Wisconsin +3.6 136.1 63% 86–74 ✗
Fresno State @ Nevada -4.2 132.9 35% 73–77 ✗
Syracuse @ Duke +14.1 162.2 90% 59–79 ✓
Villanova @ Georgetown -16.9 139.7 6% 85–74 ✓
West Virginia @ Texas Tech +9.9 125.5 81% 65–78 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's -4.8 161.7 33% 66–60 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Boston College -6.4 126.7 28% 63–68 ✗
UMBC @ Maine -8.4 135.6 22% 88–46 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ IU Indianapolis -12.4 120.2 13% 60–41 ✓
Hofstra @ Northeastern -3.8 142.6 36% 72–50 ✓
Rutgers @ Minnesota +5.4 128.2 69% 65–68 ✓
George Washington @ Rhode Island +17.0 130.8 94% 63–61 ✗
Kentucky @ Auburn +3.6 151.0 63% 71–80 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston University +11.9 137.1 86% 74–80 ✓
UMass Lowell @ New Hampshire +5.1 128.7 68% 61–67 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -12.2 135.0 13% 68–61 ✓
Valparaiso @ Indiana State +5.2 140.9 68% 75–73 ✗
Chattanooga @ VMI -5.1 148.4 32% 78–74 ✓
Elon @ Delaware +10.6 145.5 83% 77–80 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Florida +7.5 132.3 75% 42–61 ✓
Army @ Navy +11.5 133.2 85% 74–73 ✗
Oklahoma State @ Texas +9.5 121.2 81% 51–56 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross +0.7 145.5 53% 68–65 ✗
Tulane @ UCF +8.2 144.6 77% 66–68 ✓
American University @ Loyola Maryland +13.6 134.5 89% 73–78 ✓
Southern Miss @ Middle Tennessee +19.9 132.6 96% 60–74 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Radford -0.4 132.0 49% 78–74 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Winthrop +3.0 145.6 61% 62–64 ✓
Florida State @ Miami +2.9 146.7 61% 61–60 ✗
Princeton @ Dartmouth -1.3 141.9 45% 84–80 ✓
Harvard @ Cornell +2.6 158.4 59% 61–76 ✓
Brown @ Columbia -9.8 142.6 19% 93–74 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia State -2.3 144.2 42% 72–68 ✓
Davidson @ Fordham -6.7 137.7 27% 69–66 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Towson +14.2 134.5 90% 81–77 ✗
William & Mary @ Drexel +19.2 140.6 96% 83–75 ✗
Bowling Green @ Western Michigan -5.9 158.8 30% 82–75 ✓
Colorado State @ Air Force -9.3 128.7 20% 73–53 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Lipscomb -3.1 153.6 39% 73–77 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ VCU +10.2 125.2 82% 54–70 ✓
Baylor @ Oklahoma -4.5 138.6 34% 65–51 ✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M -1.5 130.9 45% 68–70 ✗
Charlotte @ Rice +5.2 153.9 68% 67–64 ✗
New Mexico State @ Stephen F. Austin +1.9 138.7 57% 72–58 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Sam Houston -2.6 127.4 41% 56–58 ✗
Longwood @ Presbyterian -4.9 129.0 33% 71–70 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee -0.3 137.4 49% 71–58 ✓
Texas State @ Arkansas State +0.8 138.9 53% 60–67 ✓
UT Arlington @ Little Rock -1.9 137.4 43% 96–98 ✗
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -5.3 151.6 31% 68–56 ✓
App State @ Georgia Southern +2.2 126.3 58% 70–62 ✗
South Dakota State @ Western Illinois -3.8 168.0 36% 93–75 ✓
San José State @ UNLV +12.4 137.6 87% 62–70 ✓
Missouri State @ Loyola Chicago +8.6 142.5 78% 79–69 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Grambling +15.0 152.3 91% 64–68 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Miami (OH) +11.4 139.5 85% 82–85 ✓
Georgia @ South Carolina +9.8 142.5 81% 66–83 ✓
Kansas @ Kansas State -5.9 142.0 30% 78–75 ✓
TCU @ Iowa State +7.7 122.4 76% 59–44 ✗
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman -2.8 115.6 40% 50–55 ✗
Howard @ Morgan State -8.6 153.2 22% 91–82 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Nicholls +10.1 150.7 82% 101–93 ✗
UC Irvine @ Long Beach State -3.4 135.0 38% 67–73 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Morehead State +10.6 137.0 83% 74–77 ✓
Austin Peay @ Tennessee State +1.1 142.1 54% 61–65 ✓
South Carolina State @ Maryland Eastern Shore +9.6 143.4 81% 69–60 ✗
UAB @ Louisiana Tech -0.8 147.1 47% 83–76 ✓
Marshall @ Florida Atlantic +9.2 155.7 80% 60–71 ✓
Montana @ Northern Arizona -3.2 136.1 38% 58–48 ✓
Idaho State @ Southern Utah +19.9 134.0 96% 74–86 ✓
Lamar @ Utah Valley +20.2 135.1 97% 41–58 ✓
California Baptist @ Abilene Christian +8.3 145.9 77% 68–77 ✓
High Point @ Hampton -0.4 125.1 49% 64–68 ✗
Charleston Southern @ South Carolina Upstate +12.6 148.2 87% 57–70 ✓
Notre Dame @ Louisville +0.8 135.2 53% 82–70 ✗
Virginia @ NC State +0.7 129.5 53% 63–77 ✓
Yale @ Pennsylvania -0.6 147.4 48% 68–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Jacksonville State +9.1 150.1 80% 71–79 ✓
Omaha @ Denver +10.9 149.2 84% 63–94 ✓
The Citadel @ East Tennessee State +8.3 151.8 77% 75–73 ✗
Charleston @ James Madison +2.8 158.8 60% 94–95 ✓
Ole Miss @ Mississippi State +11.3 133.7 85% 60–78 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois -6.7 141.1 27% 87–58 ✓
North Carolina Central @ Delaware State -11.8 136.6 14% 73–49 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +16.9 136.2 94% 77–71 ✗
Stetson @ North Alabama +6.7 125.6 73% 67–65 ✗
Richmond @ La Salle -5.6 145.4 30% 64–56 ✓
Penn State @ Iowa +10.2 143.5 82% 51–68 ✓
Sacramento State @ Idaho +1.0 147.9 54% 72–73 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Eastern Washington +2.1 158.4 57% 87–83 ✗
Northwestern State @ LSU New Orleans +11.0 154.8 84% 77–85 ✓
McNeese @ Incarnate Word -4.7 142.8 33% 82–72 ✓
Campbell @ North Carolina A&T +0.3 129.2 51% 73–72 ✗
Samford @ UNC Greensboro +5.7 132.6 70% 58–61 ✓
Western Carolina @ Mercer +10.0 150.1 82% 64–72 ✓
DePaul @ Creighton +6.5 146.5 72% 47–60 ✓
East Carolina @ Houston +23.2 144.0 98% 36–79 ✓
LSU @ Tennessee +1.1 129.9 54% 50–64 ✓
Coppin State @ Norfolk State +10.1 140.7 82% 77–84 ✓
Old Dominion @ North Texas +12.5 113.2 87% 56–69 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Clemson +11.2 132.6 85% 48–75 ✓
Drake @ Northern Iowa +3.0 145.5 61% 82–74 ✗
Missouri @ Alabama +21.1 149.5 97% 76–86 ✓
USC @ Utah -3.9 139.3 36% 79–67 ✓
Alabama State @ Prairie View A&M +3.0 159.1 61% 67–70 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Southern +17.7 143.2 95% 51–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.