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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–23 on winners spread MAE 9.6 66 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Indiana -3.6 147.8 37% 65–68 ✗
Akron @ Bowling Green +3.3 152.6 62% 91–66 ✗
Saint Louis @ Massachusetts -6.0 158.8 29% 85–91 ✗
SMU @ Memphis +5.8 154.1 70% 70–62 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Tennessee Tech +2.7 140.3 60% 76–94 ✓
Belmont @ Morehead State -5.1 142.0 32% 74–83 ✗
Austin Peay @ UT Martin +4.6 143.8 66% 72–57 ✗
Marshall @ Florida International +3.6 150.0 63% 66–70 ✓
Western Kentucky @ Florida Atlantic +2.3 147.4 58% 69–78 ✓
Charlotte @ North Texas +12.9 123.5 88% 51–65 ✓
Wright State @ IU Indianapolis -13.6 131.7 11% 73–45 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Georgia Southern +1.2 134.0 54% 76–72 ✗
App State @ Georgia State -0.1 136.4 50% 61–60 ✓
Samford @ VMI +6.4 157.1 72% 80–99 ✓
Chattanooga @ UNC Greensboro -6.2 121.1 29% 72–64 ✓
Elon @ Drexel +9.3 141.1 80% 49–77 ✓
William & Mary @ Delaware +19.3 145.5 96% 74–84 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ James Madison +8.1 141.7 77% 71–70 ✗
Charleston @ Towson +11.9 153.4 86% 67–74 ✓
USC @ Colorado -2.7 137.7 40% 61–58 ✓
New Mexico State @ Sam Houston -5.2 137.0 32% 46–71 ✗
Grand Canyon @ Stephen F. Austin -3.6 133.6 37% 46–71 ✗
Texas State @ Little Rock -6.7 141.2 27% 69–59 ✓
Troy @ UL Monroe -1.8 147.9 44% 73–65 ✓
Monmouth @ Fairfield -1.1 136.5 46% 61–58 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southeast Missouri State +1.4 161.9 55% 63–85 ✓
Old Dominion @ Rice +4.4 142.6 66% 69–77 ✓
Montana State @ Northern Arizona -7.6 136.0 24% 89–84 ✓
Northwestern State @ Nicholls +17.7 156.8 95% 58–69 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Utah Valley +14.2 152.1 90% 56–66 ✓
California Baptist @ Tarleton State +6.7 128.6 73% 88–84 ✗
Seattle U @ Abilene Christian +5.5 145.7 69% 72–62 ✗
Northern Kentucky @ UIC +5.3 139.6 69% 74–70 ✗
Oakland @ Milwaukee -10.5 135.8 17% 78–88 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Green Bay -5.8 133.7 30% 63–70 ✗
UT Arlington @ Arkansas State +6.5 136.0 72% 70–75 ✓
South Alabama @ Louisiana +1.6 144.7 56% 77–70 ✗
North Dakota @ Oral Roberts +24.2 157.7 99% 76–80 ✓
South Dakota State @ St. Thomas -3.3 168.2 38% 92–77 ✓
North Dakota State @ Kansas City +1.5 129.5 55% 77–80 ✓
Houston Christian @ Incarnate Word +4.9 135.3 67% 68–65 ✗
McNeese @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +9.8 146.7 81% 56–60 ✓
SE Louisiana @ LSU New Orleans +4.3 151.7 65% 72–78 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Murray State +32.6 122.2 100% 51–91 ✓
UConn @ Butler -11.8 131.3 14% 75–56 ✓
Boise State @ Utah State +1.9 134.8 57% 62–59 ✗
UNLV @ Air Force -3.3 121.4 38% 62–69 ✗
Tulsa @ Cincinnati +9.6 130.3 81% 69–90 ✓
UTSA @ UTEP +17.2 131.7 94% 64–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Weber State +19.2 132.7 96% 63–95 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Idaho -5.4 166.2 31% 87–70 ✓
Sacramento State @ Eastern Washington +9.2 142.5 80% 62–75 ✓
Lamar @ Utah Tech +9.3 148.3 80% 55–71 ✓
San Diego @ BYU +17.4 131.5 94% 71–79 ✓
Santa Clara @ Saint Mary's +7.5 137.2 75% 65–73 ✓
Cal State Fullerton @ UC Irvine +7.2 126.9 74% 65–63 ✗
Long Beach State @ UC San Diego +3.8 144.7 64% 87–69 ✗
UC Davis @ Cal State Northridge -3.3 132.4 38% 64–47 ✓
Hawai'i @ Cal State Bakersfield -1.4 128.8 45% 63–59 ✓
Montana @ Portland State -2.0 130.6 43% 66–64 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +16.3 157.4 93% 62–78 ✓
Arizona @ Stanford -13.8 151.5 10% 85–57 ✓
UCLA @ Utah -6.6 148.8 27% 63–58 ✓
Pepperdine @ Loyola Marymount +10.9 141.8 84% 80–85 ✓
Washington @ Oregon State +3.1 142.3 61% 82–72 ✗
Toledo @ Ohio +2.3 141.5 58% 87–69 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.