Everybody know I'm a motherfucking monster. "Monster" - Kanye West
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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26–12 on winners spread MAE 9.4 38 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
LSU @ Alabama -1.3 141.7 45% 67–70 ✗
La Salle @ Rhode Island +15.9 137.4 93% 54–56 ✓
George Washington @ Saint Joseph's +12.6 141.7 87% 61–72 ✓
Rider @ Quinnipiac +9.2 143.2 80% 67–73 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland +1.9 134.1 57% 67–50 ✗
Colgate @ Bucknell -9.7 151.7 19% 75–56 ✓
St. John's @ Creighton +5.9 154.1 70% 64–87 ✓
Lehigh @ Navy +17.0 130.4 94% 69–61 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Gardner-Webb +12.9 139.8 88% 74–61 ✗
High Point @ Charleston Southern -7.1 141.8 26% 66–70 ✗
Campbell @ Longwood +6.2 126.7 71% 64–72 ✓
Virginia Tech @ NC State -5.0 140.4 33% 62–59 ✓
Wake Forest @ Georgia Tech -6.1 142.5 29% 80–64 ✓
Vermont @ NJIT -11.7 130.7 14% 83–57 ✓
Stony Brook @ Binghamton +0.8 144.0 53% 74–71 ✗
New Hampshire @ Hartford -4.6 140.7 34% 57–69 ✗
Maine @ UMass Lowell +17.5 127.1 94% 62–71 ✓
UAlbany @ UMBC +6.4 132.7 72% 66–54 ✗
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -3.2 141.3 39% 80–83 ✗
Western Carolina @ Furman +15.6 157.5 92% 50–88 ✓
Mercer @ East Tennessee State +4.3 141.1 65% 64–72 ✓
The Citadel @ Wofford +15.7 149.9 92% 77–89 ✓
Marquette @ Villanova +14.6 137.7 91% 57–54 ✗
TCU @ Oklahoma State +5.2 127.3 68% 56–57 ✓
Indiana State @ Southern Illinois +4.6 131.9 66% 55–63 ✓
Illinois State @ Missouri State +12.2 160.2 87% 63–88 ✓
Bradley @ Drake +6.5 134.8 72% 83–71 ✗
Boston College @ Louisville +5.5 134.1 69% 54–67 ✓
Kentucky @ Texas A&M -7.5 144.8 25% 64–58 ✓
Iowa @ Rutgers -6.9 151.6 27% 46–48 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +25.8 152.6 99% 60–83 ✓
Xavier @ DePaul -5.6 152.0 30% 68–67 ✓
Virginia @ Pittsburgh -2.9 110.5 39% 66–61 ✓
San José State @ Wyoming +22.3 136.9 98% 69–84 ✓
New Mexico @ Colorado State +15.9 159.9 93% 74–80 ✓
North Florida @ Florida State +20.6 135.7 97% 73–86 ✓
Georgetown @ Providence +15.2 143.5 92% 75–83 ✓
Winthrop @ Presbyterian -2.2 141.7 42% 60–58 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.