Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -7.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +13 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -6.1 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.0 (-13.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -6.7 (+6.3) | 135.0 (-14.0) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -5.2 (+7.8) | 138.3 (-17.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -5.5 (+7.5) | 137.3 (-16.3) | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -4.9 (+8.1) | 137.4 (-16.4) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 10, 2026 | LOU 75 – 62 BC |
| Feb 6, 2025 | LOU 84 – 58 BC |
| Mar 9, 2024 | BC 67 – 61 LOU |
| Feb 14, 2024 | BC 89 – 77 LOU |
| Mar 7, 2023 | BC 80 – 62 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 2-10 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 4.0 (#112) | 1.5 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.89 (#104) | -0.48 (#213) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.90 (#113) | -0.26 (#187) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#86) | 0.444 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 43.2% |
| 3PT% | 31.2% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.3% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 77.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.2% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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