Betting Lines
| Spread | UNI -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VAL +3 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UNI -3.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (+21.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 41% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNI -2.7 (+5.7) | 142.4 (+20.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNI -2.7 (+5.7) | 144.4 (+18.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNI -2.7 (+5.7) | 146.4 (+16.6) | 37% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNI -2.8 (+5.8) | 144.0 (+19.0) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | VAL 54 – 44 UNI |
| Dec 30, 2025 | UNI 58 – 48 VAL |
| Mar 8, 2025 | VAL 64 – 63 UNI |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VAL 80 – 73 UNI |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UNI 68 – 54 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 3-8 | 9-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 73.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.0 | 71.5 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#201) | 5.2 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.79 (#244) | 0.30 (#151) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.71 (#225) | 0.34 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#232) | 0.519 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | UNI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 34.1 |
| OREB / G | 6.1 | 6.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.7% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 18.8% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.0% | 53.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 83.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.9% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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