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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
29–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.1
37 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Oklahoma
|
-2.9 | 147.4 | 40% | 67–64 | ✓ |
IU Indianapolis
@
Ohio State
|
+33.8 | 127.4 | 100% | 37–83 | ✓ |
Butler
@
UConn
|
+19.1 | 130.6 | 96% | 59–76 | ✓ |
St. Bonaventure
@
Dayton
|
+4.9 | 133.0 | 67% | 50–68 | ✓ |
Iona
@
Monmouth
|
-0.3 | 142.3 | 49% | 86–85 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
VCU
|
+1.3 | 125.0 | 55% | 63–61 | ✗ |
Niagara
@
Manhattan
|
-0.4 | 136.6 | 48% | 72–63 | ✓ |
UCF
@
East Carolina
|
-1.9 | 144.7 | 43% | 92–85 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Miami
|
-2.9 | 158.5 | 40% | 57–85 | ✗ |
Florida Gulf Coast
@
Stetson
|
-3.4 | 139.1 | 38% | 93–91 | ✓ |
Jacksonville
@
Liberty
|
+6.4 | 115.0 | 72% | 49–88 | ✓ |
Lipscomb
@
Eastern Kentucky
|
+6.9 | 163.0 | 73% | 72–86 | ✓ |
North Alabama
@
Bellarmine
|
+5.3 | 129.2 | 69% | 60–68 | ✓ |
Kent State
@
Eastern Michigan
|
+0.9 | 143.9 | 53% | 56–47 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Toledo
|
+17.8 | 151.6 | 95% | 70–83 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Miami (OH)
|
+0.4 | 143.6 | 52% | 86–63 | ✗ |
South Carolina
@
Arkansas
|
+11.3 | 145.2 | 85% | 59–75 | ✓ |
Missouri
@
Ole Miss
|
+11.6 | 131.6 | 85% | 78–53 | ✗ |
Maryland
@
Michigan
|
+7.6 | 134.9 | 75% | 64–83 | ✓ |
South Florida
@
Houston
|
+24.0 | 120.1 | 99% | 55–74 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Evansville
|
-16.2 | 130.8 | 7% | 77–48 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Fordham
|
-0.7 | 137.9 | 48% | 83–70 | ✓ |
Jacksonville State
@
Central Arkansas
|
-13.4 | 150.7 | 11% | 86–81 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Northern Illinois
|
-3.0 | 145.0 | 39% | 92–83 | ✓ |
Kansas State
@
Texas
|
+10.7 | 117.1 | 84% | 66–65 | ✗ |
Duke
@
Florida State
|
-5.8 | 143.0 | 30% | 78–79 | ✗ |
Wisconsin
@
Northwestern
|
-0.2 | 141.7 | 49% | 82–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas Tech
|
+5.4 | 121.4 | 69% | 60–72 | ✓ |
Tennessee
@
Vanderbilt
|
-5.8 | 133.4 | 30% | 68–60 | ✓ |
Clemson
@
Syracuse
|
+1.8 | 155.8 | 56% | 78–91 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Boise State
|
+17.3 | 114.0 | 94% | 56–62 | ✓ |
Cal Poly
@
Cal State Bakersfield
|
+7.1 | 116.7 | 74% | 60–73 | ✓ |
Utah State
@
Fresno State
|
+4.4 | 130.4 | 65% | 54–61 | ✓ |
American University
@
Army
|
+12.5 | 141.1 | 87% | 66–76 | ✓ |
North Carolina A&T
@
UNC Asheville
|
+6.1 | 138.2 | 71% | 73–71 | ✗ |
Hampton
@
Radford
|
+6.4 | 124.6 | 72% | 51–54 | ✓ |
Mississippi State
@
Florida
|
+4.1 | 136.6 | 64% | 72–80 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.