Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 125.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +17 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -20.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (+3.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -15.4 (+1.6) | 133.4 (+1.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -14.8 (+2.2) | 136.7 (-1.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -15.3 (+1.7) | 136.1 (-1.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -15.9 (+1.1) | 134.6 (+0.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 9-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 63.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#14) | -0.5 (#179) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#22) | 1.40 (#70) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.71 (#21) | 1.86 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#33) | 0.542 (#99) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | BTLR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.3% |
| ORB% | 37.7% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.3% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.8% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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