Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NIU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BGSU +9 | 175 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -2.6 (-6.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (+29.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 65% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -3.8 (-5.2) | 148.8 (+26.2) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -1.1 (-7.9) | 144.4 (+30.6) | 48% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -0.9 (-8.1) | 144.8 (+30.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -1.5 (-7.5) | 148.1 (+26.9) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | BGSU 68 – 52 NIU |
| Mar 5, 2025 | BGSU 71 – 58 NIU |
| Feb 5, 2025 | BGSU 84 – 77 NIU |
| Jan 13, 2024 | BGSU 83 – 72 NIU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | NIU 86 – 78 BGSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NIU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-21 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 6-14 |
| Home | 3-8 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-11 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.1 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.5 | 82.2 |
| Massey | -8.6 (#309) | -2.2 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#204) | -0.39 (#207) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#224) | -0.60 (#217) |
| RPI | 0.483 (#197) | 0.479 (#202) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NIU | BGSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.1% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 31.8 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.65 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.8% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 22.8% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 24.5% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.7% | 68.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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