Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -11.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +16 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -10.3 (+5.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.0 (-12.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -11.0 (+5.0) | 146.5 (-12.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -9.0 (+7.0) | 146.0 (-12.0) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -10.0 (+6.0) | 146.2 (-12.2) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.4 (+5.6) | 147.0 (-13.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | ARK 108 – 74 SC |
| Mar 12, 2025 | ARK 72 – 68 SC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | SC 72 – 53 ARK |
| Mar 14, 2024 | SC 80 – 66 ARK |
| Jan 20, 2024 | SC 77 – 64 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 9-9 |
| Home | 17-1 | 12-4 |
| Away | 5-4 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.9 | 69.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 70.9 |
| Massey | 10.6 (#40) | 3.9 (#113) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#63) | 1.15 (#88) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#56) | 1.01 (#109) |
| RPI | 0.578 (#60) | 0.565 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | SC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 38.3 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 13.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.21 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 22.5% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 35.1% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.4% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 78.3% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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