Betting Lines
| Spread | FRES -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FRES +7 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | FRES -3.9 (+3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.4 (-16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FRES -2.1 (+4.9) | 126.6 (-11.6) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FRES -3.2 (+3.8) | 133.3 (-18.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FRES -3.6 (+3.4) | 134.1 (-19.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FRES -3.5 (+3.5) | 132.2 (-17.2) | 70% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | USU 91 – 78 FRES |
| Dec 31, 2025 | USU 72 – 63 FRES |
| Feb 8, 2025 | USU 89 – 81 FRES |
| Jan 5, 2025 | USU 89 – 83 FRES |
| Mar 14, 2024 | USU 87 – 75 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 8-9 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 9-7 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.0 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 59.6 | 67.0 |
| Massey | 8.6 (#57) | 8.4 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#71) | 1.31 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.87 (#69) | 2.16 (#59) |
| RPI | 0.572 (#70) | 0.573 (#67) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | USU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 47.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 54.5% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.6% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 77.1% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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