Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -5.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FSU +1 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | DUKE -6.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 28% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -2.9 (+3.9) | 142.2 (+14.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -5.1 (+6.1) | 143.7 (+13.3) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -4.7 (+5.7) | 144.3 (+12.7) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -4.7 (+5.7) | 143.9 (+13.1) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | DUKE 80 – 79 FSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DUKE 91 – 87 FSU |
| Mar 2, 2025 | DUKE 100 – 65 FSU |
| Feb 17, 2024 | DUKE 76 – 67 FSU |
| Dec 31, 2022 | DUKE 86 – 67 FSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 11-4 | 15-3 |
| Away | 4-8 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.0 | 80.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#66) | 17.3 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.48 (#67) | 3.03 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.78 (#76) | 4.34 (#11) |
| RPI | 0.587 (#53) | 0.612 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | DUKE |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 49.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 1.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 55.5% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 14.0% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 46.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.3% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 11.4% |
Game Analysis
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