Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 155.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +13 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -18.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.8 (+1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -16.1 (-3.1) | 153.3 (-0.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -15.5 (-2.5) | 150.9 (+2.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -16.1 (-3.1) | 152.2 (+0.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -16.8 (-3.8) | 152.9 (+0.1) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | TOL 73 – 55 BALL |
| Feb 19, 2025 | TOL 67 – 66 BALL |
| Jan 18, 2025 | TOL 93 – 75 BALL |
| Jan 14, 2024 | TOL 77 – 72 BALL |
| Mar 3, 2023 | TOL 87 – 81 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 9-10 |
| Home | 13-2 | 9-5 |
| Away | 9-5 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 77.4 |
| Massey | 7.5 (#70) | -6.8 (#278) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.37 (#74) | -0.85 (#249) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.60 (#86) | -1.06 (#252) |
| RPI | 0.564 (#81) | 0.440 (#281) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 40.6 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 16.5% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 27.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.8% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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