Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -550 ILST +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +25 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -11.7 (+13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.1 (-9.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -12.5 (+12.5) | 155.3 (-4.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -10.9 (+14.1) | 155.3 (-4.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -10.9 (+14.1) | 154.8 (-3.8) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -12.6 (+12.4) | 154.5 (-3.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2025 | ILST 70 – 54 MOST |
| Feb 23, 2025 | ILST 70 – 68 MOST |
| Jan 18, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MOST |
| Feb 29, 2024 | ILST 75 – 74 MOST |
| Jan 20, 2024 | ILST 69 – 60 MOST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-5 | 1-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.3 | 75.2 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#72) | -0.6 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#124) | -0.53 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#104) | -0.60 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.526 (#126) | 0.472 (#211) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 39.0% |
| REB / G | 34.4 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.18 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.5% | 27.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 75.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 22.8% |
Game Analysis
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