Betting Lines
| Spread | PROV -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PROV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PROV +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | PROV -15.0 (-7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (+14.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PROV -11.5 (-3.5) | 145.2 (+12.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PROV -12.7 (-4.7) | 145.8 (+12.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PROV -13.0 (-5.0) | 145.2 (+12.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PROV -11.7 (-3.7) | 144.3 (+13.7) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | GTWN 80 – 79 PROV |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GTWN 81 – 78 PROV |
| Feb 20, 2025 | GTWN 93 – 72 PROV |
| Jan 25, 2025 | PROV 78 – 68 GTWN |
| Mar 13, 2024 | PROV 74 – 56 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-6 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 14-3 | 0-19 |
| Home | 16-1 | 6-11 |
| Away | 7-2 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L21 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.2 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#51) | -1.9 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.60 (#5) | -0.46 (#211) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.83 (#19) | -0.42 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.665 (#6) | 0.458 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PROV | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 13.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.5% | 48.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.6% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.6% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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