Betting Lines
| Spread | JOES -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.0 Under |
| Money | JOES -450 GW +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | JOES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | JOES +11 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | JOES -12.2 (-1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.9 (-8.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | JOES -9.1 (+1.9) | 145.4 (-12.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | JOES -9.1 (+1.9) | 142.6 (-9.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | JOES -9.7 (+1.3) | 141.8 (-8.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | JOES -9.0 (+2.0) | 144.0 (-11.0) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | JOES 76 – 73 GW |
| Feb 20, 2025 | JOES 79 – 68 GW |
| Feb 22, 2024 | JOES 79 – 75 GW |
| Mar 8, 2023 | JOES 87 – 76 GW |
| Feb 11, 2023 | JOES 81 – 69 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-19 | 12-18 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 8-9 |
| Home | 9-7 | 8-5 |
| Away | 1-10 | 3-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.6 | 68.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 72.8 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#143) | -7.4 (#293) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.13 (#186) | -1.24 (#281) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#174) | -1.63 (#286) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#177) | 0.425 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | JOES | GW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.5% | 15.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.6% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 22.7% |
Game Analysis
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