Betting Lines
| Spread | GWEB -11.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GWEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +13 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | GWEB -13.0 (-26.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 74% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GWEB -11.2 (-24.2) | 142.3 (-7.3) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GWEB -10.7 (-23.7) | 142.4 (-7.4) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GWEB -10.4 (-23.4) | 142.3 (-7.3) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GWEB -11.1 (-24.1) | 142.0 (-7.0) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 5, 2026 | GWEB 65 – 64 UPST |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UPST 71 – 61 GWEB |
| Jan 24, 2026 | GWEB 67 – 65 UPST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GWEB 83 – 63 UPST |
| Feb 15, 2025 | GWEB 96 – 87 UPST |
Game Analysis
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