Betting Lines
| Spread | ALA -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ALA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALA +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | LSU -1.7 (+4.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-5.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALA -0.5 (+2.5) | 147.1 (-10.1) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LSU -0.8 (+3.8) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LSU -0.8 (+3.8) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALA -0.6 (+2.4) | 146.7 (-9.7) | 65% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | ALA 90 – 83 LSU |
| Jan 26, 2025 | ALA 80 – 73 LSU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | ALA 109 – 92 LSU |
| Jan 28, 2024 | ALA 109 – 88 LSU |
| Feb 4, 2023 | ALA 79 – 69 LSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 9-9 |
| Home | 13-3 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.5 | 63.4 |
| Massey | 15.0 (#17) | 20.4 (#3) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.44 (#36) | 3.50 (#7) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.31 (#28) | 4.30 (#10) |
| RPI | 0.670 (#4) | 0.670 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ALA | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.9 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.10 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 34.4% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 21.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 26.1% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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