Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +12 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | UMBC -6.5 (-18.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.5 (-13.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -5.4 (-17.4) | 136.2 (-16.2) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -3.6 (-15.6) | 134.3 (-14.3) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -4.0 (-16.0) | 135.0 (-15.0) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -4.2 (-16.2) | 137.1 (-17.1) | 62% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 11-4 | 4-8 |
| Away | 6-10 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.1 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -3.7 (#241) | -6.4 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.88 (#253) | -1.42 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#245) | -1.87 (#296) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#251) | 0.424 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 39.5% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.69 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 23.8% | 25.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 21.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 69.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.4% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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