Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +8 | 136 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -4.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -3.0 (+5.0) | 143.0 (-7.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -2.8 (+5.2) | 145.1 (-9.1) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -2.7 (+5.3) | 147.0 (-11.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -2.5 (+5.5) | 144.5 (-8.5) | 59% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | MER 82 – 76 ETSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ETSU 77 – 71 MER |
| Feb 26, 2025 | ETSU 59 – 58 MER |
| Jan 9, 2025 | ETSU 70 – 68 MER |
| Feb 1, 2024 | ETSU 54 – 49 MER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 8-6 | 10-4 |
| Away | 4-10 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 69.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 71.9 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#183) | -1.6 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#118) | 0.36 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#137) | 0.23 (#155) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#93) | 0.522 (#131) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | MER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.2 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.