Betting Lines
| Spread | VILL -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +3 | 111 | Lost |
| Massey | VILL -13.7 (-16.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VILL -12.7 (-15.7) | 137.1 (-26.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VILL -11.9 (-14.9) | 138.4 (-27.4) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | VILL -12.1 (-15.1) | 137.5 (-26.5) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VILL -12.3 (-15.3) | 138.8 (-27.8) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | VILL 77 – 74 MARQ |
| Jan 10, 2026 | VILL 76 – 73 MARQ |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VILL 81 – 66 MARQ |
| Jan 25, 2025 | MARQ 87 – 74 VILL |
| Mar 15, 2024 | MARQ 71 – 65 VILL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-8 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 11-8 |
| Home | 12-1 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 10-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#7) | 9.3 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#9) | 2.29 (#42) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.33 (#9) | 2.70 (#46) |
| RPI | 0.653 (#7) | 0.613 (#26) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VILL | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.38 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.6% | 24.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 45.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.2% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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