Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
| Money | DEP +320 XAV -420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +1 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | XAV -4.8 (+3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (-16.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -4.2 (+3.2) | 150.3 (-15.3) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -4.4 (+3.4) | 152.1 (-17.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -4.2 (+3.2) | 150.0 (-15.0) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.2 (+2.2) | 152.9 (-17.9) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | XAV 68 – 66 DEP |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DEP 86 – 77 XAV |
| Feb 15, 2025 | XAV 85 – 68 DEP |
| Jan 11, 2025 | XAV 77 – 63 DEP |
| Feb 29, 2024 | XAV 91 – 58 DEP |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-11 |
| Home | 11-7 | 16-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | W5 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 69.2 |
| Massey | 6.3 (#91) | 14.9 (#18) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#74) | 3.01 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.82 (#73) | 3.91 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.548 (#89) | 0.633 (#15) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 33.6% |
| REB / G | 40.4 | 39.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 33.9% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 28.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.2% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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